Final 12 months was a busy time within the tequila world, and we anticipate the frenzy to maintain rolling into 2020 and past. However earlier than we get too far forward of ourselves with some predictions for the 12 months forward, let’s have a look again on the tendencies we noticed over the past 12 months.
1) Agave Costs Break Data
After hitting $30 pesos/kilo on the finish of 2019, agave costs have lastly began to return down. Primarily based on our survey of agave patrons and sellers, we present that the typical market value of agave is now $27 pesos/kilo and must be under $24 pesos/kilo by this time subsequent 12 months.
The previous a number of years have been a tough journey for a lot of manufacturers, with some even stopping manufacturing till costs return to regular; Others resorted to purchasing cheaper diffuser-made juice from different distilleries.
The disaster has been dangerous for the trade for extra than simply the underside line. The general high quality of tequila being produced took successful as a result of many producers needed to depend on underaged agave.
Assuming we don’t have a devastatingly chilly winter, the downward pricing pattern ought to proceed, and life within the tequila trade may return to regular inside a couple of years.
2) The Clooney Impact – New Gamers Rush In
Regardless of the record-breaking value for agave, new manufacturers maintain speeding into the market. We added 181 new manufacturers to our database in 2019, and we all know of fairly a couple of which can be slated to launch in 2020. We’re undecided precisely why that is–-perhaps these new gamers are excessive on the likelihood that they too will promote their model for almost $1 billion, similar to George Clooney’s Casamigos. After all, Clooney is a giant identify with massive attain, so these new manufacturers are going through a a lot larger barrier to entry.
One new model that’s getting a variety of consideration is “Teremana” (NOM 1613), yet one more superstar model as Duane “The Rock” Johnson throws his identify into the ring. His tequila is scheduled for a public launch in March, and it’s being made at Productos Finos de Agave (NOM 1416) in Jesus Maria, Jalisco.
Basketball legend Michael Jordan additionally caught air in 2019 with the discharge of his personal model, “Cincoro,” which is being made at Destiladora del Valle de Tequila (NOM 1438).
3) Effectivity Deficiency
Whereas excessive agave costs led some producers to put in tremendous environment friendly diffusers to chop prices and velocity up manufacturing, our blind tastings of those merchandise over the past 12 months have made tasters’ opinions clear – merchandise that use diffusers to separate the fibers from uncooked agave simply don’t make the reduce. (The diffuser as a device isn’t in itself dangerous–-like something, it relies on how you employ it.) However when a diffuser is used on this method, the tequilas they produced scored the bottom on common in 21 blind tastings by 410 bartenders and aficionados in comparison with traditionally-made merchandise.
Click on to enlarge these charts, which present the typical scores primarily based on manufacturing sort from all of our blind tasting occasions in 2019:
4) Artisanal Amp Up
The truth that diffuser merchandise don’t charge as excessive might be a giant a part of the rationale that some choose manufacturers have determined to return to old-school strategies, akin to utilizing a tahona (a big stone wheel) to crush agaves, and a brick oven to prepare dinner them, reasonably than an autoclave.
That is the case at Cascahuín (NOM 1123), which put in a tahona in late 2018, to complement its curler mill manufacturing.
“Our philosophy is to point out shoppers that tequila modifications batch by batch for the reason that uncooked materials (agave) modifications,” says Salvador Rosales Trejo, a third era tequilero, who runs Tequila Cascahuín, alongside along with his father Salvador Rosales, Sr. “So, the best way to show it in an easier or clearer method is by making modifications within the manufacturing processes.”
As for the truth that utilizing a tahona is much less environment friendly, and thus extra expensive than extra trendy strategies, Cascahuín thinks it’s value it.
“We imagine that there are completely different markets and subsequently there are shoppers who’re searching for, and eager to attempt, the extra intense and complicated flavors that the blue agave brings (when utilizing a tahona).”
Cascahuín now showcases its tahona juice within the highly-rated Cascahuín Tahona Blanco product, which is 100% stone crushed. Rosales believes the tahona course of provides it extra intense agave flavors and aromas, in addition to mineral and brine.
The newly put in tahona on the Cascahuín distillery.
And over at Arette, one among their autoclaves was eliminated in order that they might set up a brick oven. The oven was accomplished, and it was used to prepare dinner their first batch of agave, in June 2019.
“We wished to see how massive of a distinction a brick oven would have in comparison with an autoclave,” stated Eduardo Orendain, whose household owns Arette Tequila. “We discovered some massive variations.”
“We seen extra floral, creamy, and mineral notes with a softer profile within the brick oven batches, whereas the autoclave has extra peppery, inexperienced, and natural notes,” he stated.
Tres Agaves, a tequila model that has been available in the market for a decade, is within the technique of constructing their very own distillery, which additionally has a tahona put in.
We’ve acquired studies that distilleries Tres Mujeres (NOM 1466); Cava de Oro (NOM 1477), and Don Valente (NOM 1450) have both put in, or are within the course of of putting in, tahonas.
We’ve even heard that the well-known diffuser distillery, Leyros (NOM 1489) (maker of Casa Dragones, amid others), has plans to put in a tahona subsequent 12 months, though representatives didn’t return our queries on the topic.
The newly put in brick oven on the Arette distillery.
PREDICTIONS
Agave Costs Keep Excessive
Though agave costs are coming down from their peak of about 30 pesos a kilo within the second half of 2019, they’ll get nowhere close to the single-digit costs we’ve seen in earlier years. Costs are presently at round 27 pesos/kilo and we anticipate them to fall to about 24 pesos/kilo by the top of the 12 months.
Different Agaves Used to Make “Agave Spirits”
As the worth of blue agave has mounted, some tequila manufacturers have began taking part in with various kinds of agave. We predict that this pattern will proceed, as producers search for alternate options in uncooked supplies, and shoppers search for new taste profiles.
In 2017, Calle 23 launched its “Criollo” – a larger proof tequila utilizing a extra squat (with the next sugar content material) variant of blue agave, referred to as “criollo” by locals. That is nonetheless technically a blue agave, however renders extra intense floral, earthy, and minty aromas and flavors.
In the meantime, El Caballito Cerrero, at all times a insurgent model, determined to supply a tequila utilizing an agave that falls exterior of the strict guidelines calling for blue weber crops solely within the manufacturing of tequila. In 2018, Caballito Cerrero launched an Angustifolia “Chato” agave spirit, to a lot reward by tequila aficionados.
Some imagine that this profitable transfer will open the door to extra agave distillates going ahead.
Extra Distilleries
Excessive agave costs are having one other attention-grabbing end result — some agaveros, who’re loaded with revenue proper now, are deciding to take a position it right into a distillery of their very own. Partly as a result of this can be a method for them to generate a lot wanted tax deductions, and partly as a result of they know what’s only some years away: tremendous low agave costs.
Their logic: When agave costs drop, they’ll have the ability to change gears and canopy bills by making tequila with their very own agave as an alternative of promoting it at a loss.
We now have heard of a number of new distilleries in varied levels of building, together with the agave-growing companions of the Tequila Las Americas distillery (NOM 1480), who’re set to open their second distillery.
Agave grower and revered grasp distiller Enrique Fonseca, the proprietor of the La Tequileña distillery (NOM 1146) in Tequila, is nearing completion of a second distillery positioned in Atotonilco El Alto.
And Carlos Camarena, grasp distiller of El Tesoro de Don Felipe and Tequila Ocho, is constructing his personal distillery in Arandas. Underneath the present plan, upon completion Tequila Ocho might be produced at this new distillery.
A number of tequila manufacturers are additionally within the technique of constructing their very own distilleries, together with Tres Agaves; Clase Azul; Tequila Tromba; and Loco.
Diageo, the brand new homeowners of Casamigos, constructed a large distillery instantly (NOM 1609) throughout the road from Patrón in Atotonilco el Alto. In the meantime, Patrón is within the technique of constructing one other distillery simply behind their present facility.
Extra Manufacturers
As if there weren’t sufficient already, extra are coming. Tons extra. The excessive value of agave has not slowed the speed of latest manufacturers coming into the market, and that can proceed for years into the longer term. We added a median of 15 new tequila manufacturers to our database every month in 2019.
It’s not only for celebrities, both. We’re contacted a number of occasions every week by folks within the technique of beginning a brand new model, and we absolutely anticipate this to stay unchanged.
(Our recommendation to all of them? Don’t do it!)
Demand for Extra Transparency
“Additive-free” tequilas and “non-diffuser” manufacturers? Prepare, as a result of we’re already seeing shoppers’ demand for extra transparency within the tequila world resulting in some manufacturers together with manufacturing particulars on their labels. That is coming from the model advertising and marketing aspect, after all, and never the CRT (Tequila Regulatory Council).
Nonetheless, as shoppers grow to be extra savvy about how and the place their favourite tequilas are made, the necessity to handle questions on components, manufacturing processes, and high quality relative to cost, will grow to be extra pressing.
The Nice Divide
Increasingly more folks exterior of the hardcore aficionado neighborhood will begin to see the tequila trade in two distinct teams: Dearer, traditionally-produced, small-batch merchandise; and mass-produced, massive scale, cheaper tequilas.
There may be loads of room for each of those segments to develop within the years to return.
As extra craft manufacturers characteristic manufacturing particulars on their labels, and take a extra clear and accountable strategy to their advertising and marketing, the typical shopper will start to take discover.
We all know this as a result of our checklist of verified additive-free tequilas, and our story about components in tequila collectively generated extra web page views, search outcomes, and follow-up emails in 2019 than some other piece of content material on our websites.
So, that’s what we see on the forefront of tequila – what are your ideas? Salud, and glad new 12 months!
